Note to self: the two factors I am most likely to forget when analyzing an issue are as follows:
1. Opportunity cost
2. Statistical sampling bias
Both are obvious when studying topics with which I am familiar. As soon as I leave my research comfort zone (i.e. economics and sociology) however, I am likely to miss these. Nevertheless they are quite present, if not always of central importance.
Otherwise intelligent people (e.g. me) can produce rather poor analysis when discussing topics they have not specifically been trained to approach scientifically. It is not about lack of relevant knowledge (though this can affect the quality of argument as well), it is about mindset.
In my last post, I described my scheme for getting stuff done over the summer by blocking out times to work on particular projects and other work. Overall, the scheme worked well - I was quite productive - but it needed a few tweaks. Going forward into this week, I've made some of the following changes:
I wrapped up the spring quarter late last week and I've been thinking about ways to be productive over the summer. I'm probably already overbooked in terms of projects, and I want to be sure that both my personal, professional, and academic goals are met during this (wonderful) period of somewhat unspoken for time over the next three months.
Today is my last day in New Mexico. I arrived two days ago at Raton. Since then, I've visited with old friends and family, attended a high school graduation (almost exactly 10 years after I graduated), built blanket tents for 2 and 4 year olds, and caught up on the local news and gossip.
Over the next five days, I'll be spending at least forty-eight hours on Amtrak's Southwest Chief as I travel from Metropolis Chicago to New Mexico for my little sister's high school graduation. Traditionally, I load up on books and movies. I'm planning on doing it again this time. (In particular, I'm looking forward to using my Sony Reader to avoid carrying 50 pounds of books.)
- Star Trek: The Next Generation: Seasons 5 & 6
- Stephen King's The Duma Key (+ whatever else is on my Sony Reader)
- Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
- Guillermo del Toro's The Orphanage & Hellboy
- Joseph Campbell's The Power of Myth
Some random notes:
The "surge's" success has always been based on two changes on the ground. The first has been the placation of the Sunni militias in the north with weapons, money and promises of support. By buying off our enemies and convincing them to battle Al Qaeda instead, we bought further time for political reconciliation. I am not sure that arming militias whose leaders are willing to switch sides for the right price is a wise long-term strategy but it certainly has reduced violence somewhat in the meantime. The second and probably more important change has been the cease fire declared by Al Sadr, the "firebrand" cleric who is behind the most dangerous and violent Shia militia. Again, his willingness to halt his militia's paramilitary operations has led to increased stability and further time to enact desperately needed legislation (which, by the way, has still not occured). In the last few days this cease-fire has essentially shattered as the result of a government led assault on Basra, a stronghold of Sadr's movement. This strike, which apparently was launched without prior American information, was meant to swiftly reclaim the city and solidify the political power of Prime Minister Maliki. With causalities in the hundreds over the last three or four days and no demonstrable progress in reclaiming territory, has instead returned Iraq, at least temporarily, to its pre-surge state of smoldering chaos. The cease-fire may survive the current battle though this appears less likely as the operation continues; militias have already begun to re-seize Baghdad neighborhoods and set up heavily armed road blocks. Regardless, the whole incident demonstrates just how tenuous the surge-enabled relative peace is/was. Without political progress it is only a matter of time before Iraq returns to the chaos of civil war, before the Sunni militias, newly armed, rethink their truce with American forces, before the Shia militias grow tired of Al Maliki and decide to re-exert control of the streets. Let's hope the government has not already squandered all the breathing room our military could afford them.
I spent most of my last full day in Providence at the special collections at the John Hay Library at Brown University:
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